Covid-19's Burnout

A forest can only burn when there is fuel.

Like a forest fire, viruses need a host for it to survive. The forest needs trees to burn and Covid-19 needs humans with weak immune systems.  Is there a point where this Coronovirus could eventually burnout...maybe soon? 

Using the fire scenario, imagine the U.S. as a forest of match sticks. Most of the big cities have a concentration of matches, while the rural areas (albeit larger in area) only have a few. When the Coronovirus first entered the U.S. it was introduced through airports in large cities...the West Coast closed earlier than the East Coast. Thus, still with daily connections to other countries, New York City was by far the first major firestorm, but other connecting cities soon followed with destruction. Now imagine the cities  as matches burning wildly out of control, but as the fires died down in the cities, they slowly continue to reach out to the suburbs and rural areas. It is not hard to conclude that once the states implemented 'Phase 1' and 'Phase 2,' the contagious city dwellers spread the virus to these rural areas.

We know  Covid-19 cases increase when three things are in place:

1) The virus is still active - no Herd Immunity.

2) There are available hosts.

3) There is adequate testing and contact tracing to prove positive increases. 

It is also assumed that an increasing death rate will follow, if hosts' immunity is compromised.  

My primary information resides within an academic article by The Conversation (see link below). I will be referring to its data and sources from now on.

With businesses reopening and people moving about, it goes without saying that the case numbers would increase. Now that in itself would be okay, if the people in the rural areas were healthy - and many are. However, rural areas also have more elderly populations - the most immune compromised folk. 

Here is a graph of the susceptibility of rural areas. In my state, for example (Oregon), notice the weak spots are now outside the city, out to the corners of the state. Malheur county in the desert and  Coos county at the coast (previously low in cases and zero deaths) are now considered high risk areas. Look at your own state to see how the high risk areas have finally moved to rural communities.

Not only is the spread  a leading factor in Covid case numbers increasing, but the secondary damage is what happens when the virus arrives. 

The graph below shows the breakdown between city and rural and the contributing susceptibility factors to Covid-19. Everything above the green line is the more vulnerable factor, below the green line - less so. 

Notice how the cities' burden is densely populated areas, while it's the country towns' vulnerability is the weaker elderly, and in semi-rural areas - people with underlying conditions. A doctor at a local hospital told me most of the deaths she's seen are those elderly from nursing homes.  

In any case, unlike cities, lack of health care and social services makes rural communities particularly vulnerable. In many areas, it will most likely require volunteers and civic groups integrated with  state support to mitigate rural sickness. Will this be enough to smother the virus?

Tackling Covid-19 in the future

I contend that like a forest fire it could burn itself out.  Notice I said could and not would. That is because it depends on how much of a Herd Immunity we will have and what kind of treatment is available to help those infected.
A vaccine is like a manufactured Herd Immunity (see link below - 2min mark how the Herd Immunity works). However, a vaccine will take some time to develop. So, without a vacine, it's important to be strategic with good scientific methodology as we enter into the fall season.
But, again, could it burn itself out? Professor Karol Sikora, former director of the WHO, believes that it's likely.
 https://www.firstpost.com/health/coronavirus-could-burn-out-on-its-own-before-we-have-a-working-vaccine-former-who-chief-8387911.html

Flattening the Curve was the mantra at the earliest stages of the pandemic, so that the hospitals wouldn't be overwhelmed.  This was to be able to care for in-coming patients at the hospital. An yet, that slogan is true in another regard - it buys time for scientists and medical professionals to find new ways of combating the virus. As people become more aware of proper health practices (i.e. not touching their face and hand washing after being in crowds), our society has time and is better prepared for the next event.  

Furthermore, government agencies can learn from these experiences and use new techniques and medicines to tackle the next strain or other unknown novel virus that may be lurking just around the corner.
The best preparedness came from Taiwan, who was the first country to sound the alarm to the World Health Organization (WHO) about the Coronavirus. Unfortunately, the rest of the world ignored them, because they weren't formal members of the WHO. Tawain has a population greater than New York, and yet has had only seven deaths. That is not a typo - SEVEN Covid-19 deaths in Taiwan, between December of 2019 and July of 2020.  Taiwan knew what was coming and initiated their country's locked down three days BEFORE Wuhan was locked down in China. Sadly, the world would look completely different now, if it had only listen to their warning.

America has seen worse diseases in the past, and will certainly see them in the future. Therefore, whether or not Covid-19 burns out this year or it morphs into another strain, it is vital that the scientific and political community work together (nationally and abroad),  using technology and proven procedures to stamp out the pandemic  forest fires before they rage across the earth once again.

ttps://theconversation.com/rural-america-is-more-vulnerable-to-covid-19-than-cities-are-and-its-starting-to-show-140532  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34UWTlxK6Ks

https://time.com/5826025/taiwan-who-trump-coronavirus-covid19/

America the Splintered

When lowering your pond, the rocks will appear.

Social distancing and isolation, loss of jobs and businesses, "police brutality," racial inequality protests, riots, political manipulation, and market unrest. How did we get to this point, within such a short period of time?

Even before the Impeachment proceedings were over, Covid-19 arrived on the shores of America. That is when the trouble first began. Instead of allowing America to come together to fight the pandemic, it chose to follow the path of destruction. Instead of looking outward and upward, choosing to focus on the positive, citizens turned inward - lashing out with selfish interests. The result was social unrest...and we have no one to blame but ourselves.

As the weeks of life with Covid-19 turned to months, leaders kept the restrictions on citizens rights. It was a powder-keg ready to explode - and it did. 

One of the first matches was unemployment. Millions of Americans could not work, and could not even leave their house but to get food. Stress could not be controlled and showed itself.

The second match was the death of George Floyd who died as a result of a cop suffocating him. Those with a racial concern (and most everyone else) were outraged at the incident. But what was an isolated event, became the rallying cry for racism and Police Brutality.

The third match was hate toward the police. With racism as its catalyst, "defunding police" became a method to restrict or correct law enforcement techniques. The Republicans had a bill ready, but the Democrats wanted more severe restrictions - neither agreed.

The fourth match was the Democratic Party's latest strategy. With President Trump on his heels from the pandemic, they took advantage by pushing for reforms more suited to the Left Wing of their party. In a schizophrenic way, the Democrats insisted on keeping business closed and homes locked down (to ensure public safety), while encouraging protests (to support racial discrimination). 

Protests led to more Covid cases; thus, allowing the call to shutdown and/or restrict people further...ultimately causing more dissension within the population (and even in the ranks of Trump's own party), helping Trump's approval to drop before the next election. 

The ignition was initiated by the Press. 

Pictures and video of cops hurting blacks, or Blacks retaliating against cops; fires being started on buildings; looters ransacking shops; chaos wherever they could find it. As chaos continues, the news is ready, willing, and happy to capture every piece of it, ensuring their ratings would stay solid.

Every step of the way, the mainstream media pushed for more and more and even more negative news...culminating with a chorus of hysteria singing "Highest cases since the pandemic began." 

Ultimately, these groups unwittingly (or wittingly) took advantage of the Pandemic to unleash their own agenda, which caused the negativity in America to flourish unabated. The poor and unemployed has had to suffer the most in this situation. And in a sick way, the rich and powerful have played the people, like an orchestra being led by a sinister conductor.

In the end, America pays the price - in lives, money, and emotion. We need to wake up and realize that we are not our own worst enemies. We are citizens of the greatest country on Earth and should behave as such. It is vital we set aside our differences. We need to come together in the greatest positive regard to help each-other, care for each-other, forgive each-other, and build one another up. We can and must, for the betterment of society and our future.  

WW Covid-19

THE COVID-19 WAR

The U.S. has fought many wars against foreign enemies, and has never lost their homeland. Like other wars, there are casualties from the enemy. While this isn't the first pandemic the U.S. has had to deal with, never has our country had to shut down large portions of commerce to save lives in as a defense against a virus. 

THE BEGINNING

At first, the enemy virus seemed to fight a skirmish with China. But as it spread throughout Europe, it was evident that it was far more threatening. America had restricted flights from China at the end of January, but Italy's death count was rising, so flights from Europe were halted as well. Unfortunately, it was too late. Previous flights had already let the enemy in. The only hope to vanquish the invader was by using our homes as fortresses to barricade contamination in or out. Regardless, the virus conducted siege warfare on our domiciles, by sending invisible soldiers quietly, and literally, on the backs of our young and healthy who spread it to the older and more vulnerable. 

The original U.S. death was in Washington State, then others mounted in other parts of America...California, New York, and so on. President Trump announced social guideline recommendations to the States and most governors complied. Nevertheless, slowly and methodically the virus marched across the country - spread on by the cavalier and naive. Within three weeks, the death toll climbed from a few hundred to over 10,000.

Worse case scenarios had posited that up to 200,000 lives could be lost, and the U.S. government had to make some serious decisions. 

With Freedom comes sacrifice - but at what price and with how many lives would it take to conquer the enemy? 

THE FRONT

This is one war that required less people not more to fight it. Italy proved how quickly resources could be overwhelmed and how important restricting large crowds curtails the spread. Fearing similar results, the U.S. took steps to ensure hospitals were capable. Therefore, most states endorsed self quarantine in homes,  closed non-essential business, and curtailed large gatherings.  Some thought it folly or draconian; others wanted even stricter measures. President Trump opted for State's rights instead of Federal control. States like South Dakota with fewer people and wider spaces allowed more commerce, large densely packed states like New York clamped down hard. For the first few weeks, deaths were low everywhere. but sadly the virus had already infiltrated the population. The virus quietly incubated and spread before anyone knew it was upon them. Control measures wouldn't stop it, but hopefully they would slow infection down. 

Other than people armed with alcohol and soapy solutions, citizens had no offensive weapons against the invaders. Isolation from loved ones and skyrocketing unemployment was taking it's toll.
The virus was so new, scientist needed to adapt on the fly. With ingenuity and swiftness, untested biological weapons were being created to combat the disease.  Everyone pitched in with ideas and methods to combat the evil. Private enterprise stepped up, modifying factories to produce masks, gowns, ventilators, and other medical equipment. As the death toll mounted, government supported the states with anything and everything needed to combat the virus.
Coincidentally, the tide turned at about the same time Easter approached. Relief came in the form of leveling hospitalizations. New York had half of the over 20,000 U.S. deaths, but was the first to see some improvement. Active cases and daily death rates were declining.

AFTERMATH

Americans always believed they would survive the war, but at what cost?
The stock market had plunged to the lowest levels in history. Businesses had forced employees out of  work. Government threw out trillions of dollars to stop the financial bleeding.
We were a crippled nation in a crippled world.
So like the Battle of the Bulge in WWII, the US could look positively forward to an end to this war with Covid-19. Unfortunately, like the past wars and pandemic storms, lives and property are washed away. Experts will no doubt dissect the damage and determine if the methods were worth the pain, while hard-hit common citizens will pick up the pieces and struggle to survive.

But there is a glimmer of hope for Americans and the world at large. History has been through worse and recovered. Let us learn from the Easter message - that through death comes life, through tragedy comes renewal, through loss comes rebuilding.
We must have faith, for this too shall pass. This isn't just the American way, it's what we do. And although American life may be different, it will bloom beautiful once again.